Introduction to Card Counting
Card counting is a blackjack strategy used to determine when the odds favor the player over the house. The goal is to keep track of the cards dealt from the shoe to estimate when the remaining deck is rich in aces and face cards, which benefit the player. This allows skilled card counters to bet more when the count favors them and decrease bets when the odds shift towards the dealer.
The concept of card counting originated in the early 1960s when mathematicians and gamblers like Edward O. Thorp analyzed blackjack odds and realized keeping track of dealt cards can give players an edge. Thorp published the bestselling book Beat the Dealer in 1962, revealing card counting to the masses. While not illegal, casinos now take countermeasures to detect and stop advantage players using card counting.
The purpose of card counting is to overcome the house edge by maximizing bets during player favorable counts. Skilled card counters use systems like the Hi-Lo count to estimate the number of high and low cards remaining in the shoe. By converting the running count into a “true count,” card counters know when the deck is rich in 10s and aces and can increase their bets with the odds in their favor. With proper play and betting, card counting gives the player a mathematical edge to win long-term profits.
How Card Counting Works
The basic idea behind card counting in blackjack is to keep track of the ratio of high cards to low cards that have already been played. This allows you to determine when the remaining deck is rich in high cards (which benefits the player) versus low cards (which benefits the dealer). There are several key concepts:
Basic Strategy
This refers to the mathematically optimal way for the player to act based on their hand versus the dealer’s visible card. Basic strategy charts outline the best decision (hit, stand, double down, split, etc) in every possible situation. Memorizing basic strategy is the foundation before considering card counting.
Running Count
This is the process of assigning values to cards as they are dealt and keeping a running tally. For example, the popular Hi-Lo system assigns a value of +1 to low cards (2-6) and -1 to high cards (10-A). As each card is revealed, you add or subtract its value from the running count.
True Count
The true count adjusts the running count based on the number of decks remaining to be played. This allows you to determine the concentration of high cards remaining in the deck. It is calculated by dividing the running count by the number of decks left to be played.
Betting Correlation
Betting correlation refers to increasing your bets in relation to the advantage the true count gives you. A true count of +4 would indicate a 4% player advantage, so you might bet 4x your minimum bet. Getting these bet correlations right is key to maximizing winnings from card counting.
Calculating the Edge
Combining basic strategy with the edge gained from true count allows you to estimate your overall mathematical advantage over the house in a given situation. Careful practice and analysis of how different true count ranges alter your edge are required to leverage card counting successfully.
Card Counting Systems
There are several major card counting systems that blackjack players use to gain an edge over the house. Each system assigns different point values to cards based on their effect on the player’s odds. Here are some of the most common and effective card counting systems:
High-Low
The High-Low system, also known as Hi-Lo, is the most popular card counting method. In High-Low, cards 2 through 6 are assigned a value of +1, cards 7 through 9 are valued at 0 points, and 10-Ace have a -1 value. As more low cards are dealt in a shoe, the count will go higher, indicating the player has the advantage. When more high cards are dealt, the count drops, favoring the dealer.
KO Count
The KO or Knock Out Count was designed to be easier to use for beginners. In this system, cards 2 through 7 are +1, 8s, 9s, and 10s are 0, and face cards and Aces are -1. The KO Count has a more balanced count with fewer extremes, avoiding very high or low counts. This makes it less powerful but also easier to manage.
Omega II
Omega II is considered one of the most powerful systems, but also more complex. Cards 2 through 6 are +1, 7s, 8s, and 9s are 0, face cards are -2, and Aces are -1. By valueing face cards more, Omega II can produce very high counts, creating huge player advantages. However, the wider range of values also increases the difficulty.
Zen Count
Zen Count assigns values of -1, 0, or +1 based on a mathematical formula. It was designed to be easier for users to memorize and adjust to changing casino conditions. While not as strong as Hi-Lo or Omega II, Zen Count’s simplicity and flexibility have made it popular.
Hi-Opt I
Hi-Opt I builds upon the High-Low system by altering the values for 4s, 5s, and Aces. In Hi-Opt I, 4s and 5s are +2 instead of +1, while Aces count 0 instead of -1. By increasing the value of middle cards, Hi-Opt I can produce very accurate and deep counts, though basic strategy must be adjusted.
Each system has advantages and disadvantages based on complexity, power, and ease of use. However, simple systems like High-Low are effective enough for most casual and professional card counters. The key is picking a system you can master and sticking with it through practice.
Card Counting Strategies
Card counting allows skilled players to gain an advantage over the casino by keeping track of the cards dealt from the shoe. By maintaining a ‘running count’ and converting that to a ‘true count’, advantage players can determine when the remaining shoe favors the player and when it favors the dealer. This enables card counters to vary their bets based on the count, a technique known as bet spreading. Here are some key card counting strategies:
Bet Spreading
Bet spreading involves modulating your wager size based on the advantage of the current deck. When the count favors the player, you increase your bets to capitalize on the edge. When the count favors the dealer, you lower your bets to minimize losses. Effective bet spreading allows card counters to maximize winnings during player-favorable counts and reduce losses during dealer-favorable counts. Setting a proper betting spread is crucial – too small and you lose potential profits, too large and you risk detection. A typical spread is 1-10 units.
Team Play
Team play involves coordinated strategies between multiple card counters at a table. Roles include the ‘big player’ who places large bets during high counts but otherwise acts like a regular player. ‘Spotters’ keep track of the count and discretely signal to the big player when to join the game. ‘Gorillas’ blend into the crowd and use distractions if the big player is detected. Team play allows for greater bet spreads and potential profits. Communication methods involve coded gestures, signals, cell phones, and more.
Casino Countermeasures
Casinos employ various countermeasures to thwart card counters and protect their profits. These include:
- Shuffling prematurely – Intermittent or continuous shuffling when the count becomes favorable. This disrupts running counts.
- Cutting off bets – Refusing bets when a player is suspected of counting cards. Forces players to leave.
- Back-off requests – Asking a suspected counter to stop playing blackjack. Done as an alternative to barring them.
- Cheating accusations – Detaining and questioning players about cheating, though card counting is not illegal. Intimidation tactic.
- Game variants – Modifying rules to increase house edge, like paying 6:5 on blackjack instead of 3:2.
Disguising Plays
To avoid detection, card counters employ various techniques to disguise their betting patterns and plays:
- Making random bets along with correlation bets. Breaks up betting patterns.
- Varying bet spreads between different tables and sessions. avoids drastic spreads at one table.
- Playing conservatively on positive counts. Avoiding insurance, double downs, splits that hint at count knowledge.
- Mimicking new player behavior on negative counts like asking for advice on every hand.
- Playing with a partner and communicating the count via acting drunk or angry.
- Role camouflage – acting wealthy or distracted to justify poor plays on negative counts.
Effective card counters blend strong strategy with disguises to maximize profit while avoiding casino scrutiny. Proper decision-making, discipline, and acting make success possible.
Card Counting Simulation and Practice
One of the best ways to learn and practice card counting is through the use of blackjack simulation software and mobile apps. These provide a risk-free environment to develop card counting skills and test different strategies. Here are some of the main options for blackjack simulations and practice:
Blackjack trainers
Dedicated blackjack training software provides tools to practice counting cards and making betting decisions. They let you set game rules, betting spreads, and simulate shoes of cards to count. As you progress, you can increase the speed and complexity. Many trainers also track your accuracy and offer quizzes. Top options include Blackjack Apprenticeship, CV Blackjack, and BlackjackInfo.
Free online simulators
Many free blackjack games and practice tools are available online. These allow you to manually count cards and vary bet sizes while the game handles dealing the cards and payouts. Useful free simulators include Wizard of Odds and Clever Coding. Just be aware that some feature ads.
Mobile apps
For portable practice, blackjack trainer apps can be downloaded on smartphones and tablets. Options like Blackjack Master and Blackjack Tutor provide full drills along with tutorials on strategy. Review the permissions and data usage before downloading.
Practice discipline
When using blackjack practice software, approach it with discipline. Set aside focused time to practice, learn from mistakes, and track your accuracy. Avoid distractions during practice sessions for maximum improvement. Staying committed to regular practice is key to developing solid card counting abilities.
With diligent practice using blackjack simulators and trainers, card counters can master skills like keeping track of the count, judging true card counts, and estimating how favorable the remaining cards are. This ability translates directly to real casino gameplay and boosts the odds of winning.
In the Casino: Proper Etiquette and Demeanor
When card counting in a live casino, proper etiquette and demeanor are crucial for avoiding detection and managing risk. Here are some tips:
- Act natural and avoid drawing attention. Don’t celebrate big wins obnoxiously or get angry after losses. Remain calm and composed.
- Don’t vary your bet spread too aggressively. Try to mimic the betting patterns of a typical casual gambler. Make small talk with the dealer and tip occasionally.
- Avoid betting the table maximum every hand when the count is highly favorable. This is a red flag. Cap your bets to appear more unsophisticated.
- Don’t stare intensely at the cards. Glance at them quickly or act indifferent. Tracking counts mentally instead of overtly gives the impression of a typical player.
- Don’t buy in for too much or too little money relative to the table minimum. Blend in with the average player’s buy-in amount.
- Resist urge to raise bets significantly when the shoe is rich in face cards and aces. Be more subtle. Casually increase bets in a measured way.
- Don’t play for exceptionally long periods of time. Dealers may become suspicious of someone playing for 8+ hours with few breaks.
- Spread out play over multiple tables and casinos. Be unpredictable. Don’t become a regular.
- Avoid partnerships with other card counters. Team play is easier to detect. Be a solo act.
- If questioned by casino personnel about your strategy, feign ignorance. Never admit to card counting.
Staying inconspicuous is the key. Blend in, act naturally, be subtle with bet spreads, and give no obvious indicators. Mastering the proper demeanor takes practice but is essential.
Blackjack Variants and Rule Effects
Blackjack rules can vary significantly between casinos, and these rule variations have a major impact on the potential card counting advantage. It’s critical for card counters to understand which rules help or hurt their edge before sitting down at a table. Here are some of the most common rule variations and their effect on card counting strategy:
Number of Decks
- Single deck blackjack provides the most favorable odds for card counters. With fewer cards in play, the effect of each card coming out is more pronounced. This makes true counts rise and fall more dramatically.
- Double deck blackjack offers the next best advantage. While not as volatile as single deck, the count still fluctuates rapidly.
- The most common game today is 6 or 8 deck blackjack. With more cards, the count moves slower and masking becomes harder. This significantly reduces the card counting edge.
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
- When the dealer stands on all 17s, both hard and soft, this is better for the player. The dealer will bust more often, adding to the player’s advantage.
- When the dealer hits soft 17, card counters lose some of their edge. The dealer will bust less frequently.
Doubling After Splitting
- Allowing doubling after splits benefits card counters. It provides more opportunities to double when the count is high.
- Restricting doubling only to original hands reduces player advantage. The house edge increases in negative counts when counters cannot double small starting hands.
Surrender
- Early and late surrender give the player the chance to fold a bad hand and recoup part of their bet. This helps in high counts by avoiding potentially unfavorable outcomes.
- No surrender increases the house edge and hurts the card counter’s overall edge across many hands.
Other Key Rules
- More generous blackjack payouts (3:2 rather than 6:5) improve player advantage.
- Restrictions on pairing, splitting, or resplitting aces reduces potential winnings in high counts.
- Allowing re-splitting of cards increases volatility in player’s favor.
The most favorable blackjack rules will utilize fewer decks, allow favorable splits/doubles, and provide surrender. Counters should understand any trade-offs and look for the best overall conditions.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Counting Cards
Card counting is one of the few legal ways to gain an advantage over the casino in games like blackjack. When used correctly, it can give players up to a 2-3% edge against the house. However, this isn’t without its downsides as well. Here we’ll examine the key pros and cons of card counting as a form of advantage play.
Advantages
- Mathematical edge – By keeping track of the cards dealt, card counters can mathematically determine when the deck favors the player versus the dealer. This allows them to bet more when the odds are in their favor.
- Legal – Card counting itself is not illegal, as long as no external devices are used. Players cannot be detained or prosecuted for simply using their memory and math skills.
- Available to anyone – With practice, card counting can be learned by anyone willing to put in the time and effort. No special tools or talents are required beyond basic math proficiency.
- Beatable game – Blackjack offers some of the best odds for players due to the ability to count cards. Other casino games have higher house edges that are difficult to overcome.
- Lucrative profits – Skilled card counters can earn sizable profits over time by varying bets based on the count. This offers much higher earning potential than flat betting.
Disadvantages
- Casino countermeasures – When card counters are detected, casinos can shuffle cards more frequently or flat bet players to negate the advantage. Players may also be trespassed or banned.
- Large bankroll required – To maximize winnings through betting fluctuations, a sizable bankroll is required to endure variance. This could be $10,000 to $50,000.
- Game limits – Table maximum bets and other wager limits reduce the betting scale advantage of card counting. High limit tables must typically be found.
- Intense focus required – Keeping the count while playing requires intense mental focus. Fatigue sets in after even short sessions.
- No guarantee – Even with perfect play, profits aren’t guaranteed in the short term due to the randomness of results. Patience and persistence are key.
In summary, card counting offers a provable way to beat the house at blackjack. But this advantage comes with costs like bankroll requirements, casino countermeasures, and mental fatigue. For many, the rewards are well worth the effort required. When compared to other advantage play techniques, card counting remains one the most accessible paths to blackjack profits.
Famous Card Counters
Card counting has a rich history of larger-than-life personalities who pushed the boundaries and made names for themselves by beating the casinos. While many advantage players have come and gone quietly, a few truly stand out.
Ken Uston
Ken Uston is considered one of the godfathers of card counting. He was one of the first to publish a book on the subject, Million Dollar Blackjack, chronicling his experience as part of the first MIT blackjack team in the 1960s. Uston was known for his flamboyant style, often wearing ridiculous disguises to avoid detection while playing. His lawsuit against Atlantic City casinos helped establish the legal right to count cards in New Jersey.
Tommy Hyland
Tommy Hyland formed one of the longest-running and most successful blackjack teams in history, playing from 1979 to 2010. His team operated under the guise of a professional gambling business, with tryouts, practices, strategy manuals, and a managerial structure. Hyland perfected team techniques like Big Player rotations and the “MIT shuffle” to avoid casino scrutiny. At its peak, his team was said to have over 25 players.
Bill Kaplan
Bill Kaplan was a Harvard MBA student who formed the first MIT blackjack team featured in the book Breaking Vegas. Kaplan developed the concept of pooling smart students together, backed by investors, to form small teams that would fly under the radar and capitalize on flaws in the casinos. His innovative ideas launched the model for modern blackjack teams.
Edward Thorp
Edward Thorp is credited with inventing card counting in his 1962 book Beat the Dealer. A mathematics professor and hedge fund manager, Thorp’s scientific approach used probability theory to prove that card counting provided a statistical advantage to the player. While not an outstanding player himself, Thorp provided the blueprint that started the card counting revolution.
The MIT Blackjack Team
No discussion of card counting history is complete without the infamous MIT team. For over two decades, members of the Blackjack Team used mathematically-based strategies to extract millions from casinos globally. Their story has been chronicled in books like Bringing Down the House and films like 21. While the details have been embellished, the real MIT team showed the power of organized card counting.
The Future of Card Counting
Card counting has been around for decades, but what does the future hold for this advantage gambling technique? As casinos and technology evolve, will card counters still be able to maintain an edge?
Predictions About the Future of Card Counting
Some predictions about the future of card counting include:
- Casinos will continue using more countermeasures like continuous card shufflers and automatic card shufflers, making counting more difficult. However, skilled card counters will still find ways to maintain an edge despite these challenges. Counters may have to alter their strategies and be selective about favorable rules and playing conditions.
- As surveillance and facial recognition technology improves in casinos, counters may find it harder to avoid detection. This could discourage some casual counters. However, pros will adapt by perfecting their skills and etiquette to avoid red flags.
- If more jurisdictions legalize online blackjack, this could provide new opportunities for counters to play anonymously. However, most online games now use automatic shufflers. Counting pros may focus their efforts on finding any remaining profitable opportunities online.
- While mobile and wearable technology could enable new ways to subtly track the count, most devices are still too clunky and obvious to use discretely in the casino. As technology shrinks, counters will have to adapt to new threats of detection from tech-savvy players and surveillance.
- Over the long run, as casinos refine their countermeasures, the profit potential from card counting may gradually decline but likely not disappear. The small percentage edge may get smaller but skilled advantage players will still eke out wins.
Technology’s Impact on the Future of Card Counting
Developments in technology will have a major impact on the future of card counting:
- Improved AI and machine learning will enable casinos to develop better player tracking and card counting detection capabilities. This could make life more difficult for counters.
- But technology can also help counters by enabling new apps and tools to practice and simulate card counting. Digital tools may enhance counters’ skills.
- Some envision digital or virtual reality platforms that could enable counters to practice their skills anonymously online and train before hitting real casinos.
-Wearable technology might allow subtle card counting aids, although these would have to evade casino surveillance and rules against devices. Most aids would likely get discovered quickly.
- In the arms race between counters and casinos, new technology may first favor the house but skilled counters are adaptable and may find creative ways to leverage tech advances for their benefit as well.
Is There Still an Edge?
While the future landscape may look different, expert counters using updated techniques and adapting to new threats should still be able to maintain a small mathematical edge over the house. Counting may require more selectivity and adaptation from counters, and the win rates may decline slightly, but it is unlikely casinos will be able to eliminate the edge from card counting entirely.
By staying up to date on the latest trends and countermeasures, committing to rigorous ongoing practice, and being willing to adjust strategies as needed, card counters can preserve their advantage. Counters may have a harder time, but those dedicated to their craft should still be able to come out ahead. Card counting as a winning strategy seems likely to persist, even if the margins get thinner. With flexibility and perseverance, counters can keep their edge indefinitely.